Positiva nyheter för Sol- och vindföretaget Borevind var ju orderna från Nynäshamn nyligen och infromationen om stort svenskt stöd för innstallation av solceller. Nu kommer Greentech Medias rapport om utbud och efterfrågan på solceller 2009. Det är ett massivt överutbud. Med ledning av kostnaden för olika solcellstillverkare har de framställt en utbuds- och efterfrågekurvor. Om markandspriset får slå igenom går det då att säga vilka som överlever det närmaste året. Man spår en massiv utslagning av solcellstillverkare och en förstärkning av de överlevande. Hur ska det gå för Borevind? Klicka här för mitt utdrag på engelska ur rapporten!
Författare är Green Tech Media Research’s Shyam Mehta. Detta referat är i princip en förkortning av texten i rapporte,
The last half-decade has seen the PV industry limited by the availability of feedstock (i.e., polysilicon) and manufacturing capacity. After a near doubling of global installations in 2008, 2009 is expected to see a substantial imbalance between available supply and demand.Year-end cell capacity will stand at a staggering 17.6 gigawatts. This is enough to produce almost 14 gigawatts of modules. Demand for 2009 may be only 5.5 gigawatts.
In the face of overcapacity of such proportions, it is obvious that only a small portion of available capacity will be utilized. As discussed in PV Technology, Production and Cost, 2009 Forecast, global supply stacks for PV modules were built from the ground-up – company by company, technology by technology, year by year. These were reconciled with demand curves in 2009 Global PV Demand Analysis and Forecast to obtain equilibrium volumes and clearing prices.
Once you see where demand and supply intersect, it actually becomes possible to identify winners and losers, based on their proximity (or lack thereof) to the clearing price. The supply was divided three brackets or “tiers” of supply:
1. Those who are likely to survive under their own devices (Tier 1, those whose fully loaded costs on an efficiency-normalized basis are 15 percent or more below the equilibrium price);
2. Those who are distressed to point of few prospects of aid (Tier 3, costs 15 percent or more above equilibrium);
3. Those who may survive through a combination of rapid attention and a dose of providence (Tier 2, within +/-15 percent of equilibrium).
Tier 1: In the Clear
Tier 1 is dominated by supply from CdTe (First Solar), large-scale European wafer-to-module multicrystalline producers (Solon) and “super mono”, i.e., high-efficiency monocrystalline producers (Sunpower, Sanyo), with notable contributions from large-scale amorphous silicon producers (Sharp) and vertically integrated multicrystalline producers (REC, Solarworld) as well. The largest-scale firms utilizing these technologies will have the most competitive economic offerings and should not have problems in selling their modules into even a demand-constrained market.
Tier 2: Uncertain Prospects, and a Struggle to Survive
Tier 2 supply consists largely of large-scale multicrystalline and amorphous silicon supply (with small amounts of low-scale CdTe and CIGS producers). Competition here is fierce, with the overwhelming majority of the producible supply (60 percent to 70 percent) being concentrated in this bracket. American and European wafer-to-module producers and global vertically integrated producers start out with their nose in front thanks to lower polysilicon prices. But this is expected to change: as blended prices for European and Asian producers converge, the lower labor costs and higher manufacturing scale for Asian producers will result in a lower cost structure by 2011 and 2012.
The fate of producers in this middle tier is uncertain and subject to a number of factors. Firms at high manufacturing scale and that have an edge over their peers when it comes to company-specific factors survive. A number of firms will be forced to sell their modules into the market at or below cost to push volumes through. Indeed, we have seen evidence to suggest that this has already begun, with lower-bracket Chinese manufacturers ready to sell their modules for as low as $2.00 per watt.
Tier 3: Victims of the Shakeout
Tier 3 supply consists of firms whose cost structure is 15 percent above the equilibrium price or worse. For the most part, it comprises of the same location/technology buckets as Tier 2 – i.e., multi c-Si producers and amorphous silicon producers. This bracket consists mostly of supply from smaller European multicrystalline firms and amorphous silicon producers who have not scaled up sufficiently to achieve competitive cost structures.
The most likely outcome is that many of these firms will not survive in a demand-constrained world. To the extent they have assets that can be incorporated into larger competitors, they will be absorbed. To the extent that the capital assets are not valuable, they will be re-purposed or scrapped. Over the next few years is a substantially smaller list of superior companies is expected to emerge.
KÄLLA: GreenTech Solar. PV in 2009; Winners, Strugglers and Losers
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